Comments on: Most Recent Badger Poll Miserably Flawed http://gop3.com/2006/07/12/badger-poll-timed-trash/ Fighting Like Warriors and Thinking Right. Thu, 08 Jul 2010 20:30:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Gop3.com: The Triumvirate » Blog Archive » Thoughts on WPR/SNC Poll http://gop3.com/2006/07/12/badger-poll-timed-trash/comment-page-1/#comment-95397 Gop3.com: The Triumvirate » Blog Archive » Thoughts on WPR/SNC Poll Fri, 27 Apr 2007 04:33:43 +0000 http://gop3.com/?p=480#comment-95397 [...] the fact that it polls residents, not voters; the 14-day sample window (professional polls average three days); the underrepresentation of Republicans; the small sample [...] [...] the fact that it polls residents, not voters; the 14-day sample window (professional polls average three days); the underrepresentation of Republicans; the small sample [...]

]]> By: Gop3.com: The Triumvirate » Blog Archive » Thoughts on New Polling http://gop3.com/2006/07/12/badger-poll-timed-trash/comment-page-1/#comment-43994 Gop3.com: The Triumvirate » Blog Archive » Thoughts on New Polling Tue, 31 Oct 2006 18:16:27 +0000 http://gop3.com/?p=480#comment-43994 [...] The University of Wisconsin Survey Center poll, on the other hand, is simply not credible (as with the last one). The eight day poll surveyed 508 Wisconsin adults without screening for registered voters, little less likely voters. There is no way Green trails Doyle by 14 points, when every professional poll since mid-September shows the race within 0 to 6 points. The reality is that Green has pulled within a few points of Doyle, that undecideds are going to break for the challenger, and that the Republicans will make ground on turnout. [...] [...] The University of Wisconsin Survey Center poll, on the other hand, is simply not credible (as with the last one). The eight day poll surveyed 508 Wisconsin adults without screening for registered voters, little less likely voters. There is no way Green trails Doyle by 14 points, when every professional poll since mid-September shows the race within 0 to 6 points. The reality is that Green has pulled within a few points of Doyle, that undecideds are going to break for the challenger, and that the Republicans will make ground on turnout. [...]

]]> By: Gop3.com: The Triumvirate » Blog Archive » Part-time Cong. Obey, Cong. Kind, Cong. Moore http://gop3.com/2006/07/12/badger-poll-timed-trash/comment-page-1/#comment-9786 Gop3.com: The Triumvirate » Blog Archive » Part-time Cong. Obey, Cong. Kind, Cong. Moore Tue, 18 Jul 2006 22:50:30 +0000 http://gop3.com/?p=480#comment-9786 [...] P.P.P.P.S. I still think the methodology for the most recent Badger poll was trash. But just think - if the poll shows the Wisconsin Marriage Amendment winning 53 to 44, imagine what the margin of victory for marriage must be like in a poll with a sample that’s fair to Republicans! [...] [...] P.P.P.P.S. I still think the methodology for the most recent Badger poll was trash. But just think – if the poll shows the Wisconsin Marriage Amendment winning 53 to 44, imagine what the margin of victory for marriage must be like in a poll with a sample that’s fair to Republicans! [...]

]]> By: SurveyUSA http://gop3.com/2006/07/12/badger-poll-timed-trash/comment-page-1/#comment-8626 SurveyUSA Fri, 14 Jul 2006 16:00:00 +0000 http://gop3.com/?p=480#comment-8626 SurveyUSA election polls are conducted over three days and nights. SurveyUSA election polls are conducted over three days and nights.

]]> By: Josh Schroeder http://gop3.com/2006/07/12/badger-poll-timed-trash/comment-page-1/#comment-8511 Josh Schroeder Fri, 14 Jul 2006 03:54:06 +0000 http://gop3.com/?p=480#comment-8511 Uh, Terri violated a state law, not a Federal Law. Mark Green currently holds a federal office, and I am not aware of a federal declaration of non-candidacy (but I could be wrong). Besides, the fact that he transferred his congressional funds to his governor campaign account, and he has the party nomination, and he endorsed a Republican in the race, and so forth, kinda let the cat out of the bag that he's not running. Whereas Terri could very well have filed 200 signatures if she wanted to drop out of the Republican Primary and run again for the Assembly. Uh, Terri violated a state law, not a Federal Law. Mark Green currently holds a federal office, and I am not aware of a federal declaration of non-candidacy (but I could be wrong). Besides, the fact that he transferred his congressional funds to his governor campaign account, and he has the party nomination, and he endorsed a Republican in the race, and so forth, kinda let the cat out of the bag that he’s not running.

Whereas Terri could very well have filed 200 signatures if she wanted to drop out of the Republican Primary and run again for the Assembly.

]]> By: SPET3R http://gop3.com/2006/07/12/badger-poll-timed-trash/comment-page-1/#comment-8180 SPET3R Thu, 13 Jul 2006 07:10:19 +0000 http://gop3.com/?p=480#comment-8180 So Dan, how does Terri McCormick relate to your badger poll? So quick to add that little snippet just to stay critical. John Gard must be perfect. Looking at the election sheets released by the State Election Board... I don't think Mark Green declared Non-Candidacy either? MMMmmm... is that necessarily breaking the law? In regards with the Badger poll, take it for a grain of salt. Remember, they put Bush ahead of Kerry by 14 points in the summer of 2004. I remember that clearly... I'm waiting for a better poll like Strategic vision. So Dan, how does Terri McCormick relate to your badger poll? So quick to add that little snippet just to stay critical. John Gard must be perfect. Looking at the election sheets released by the State Election Board… I don’t think Mark Green declared Non-Candidacy either? MMMmmm… is that necessarily breaking the law?

In regards with the Badger poll, take it for a grain of salt. Remember, they put Bush ahead of Kerry by 14 points in the summer of 2004. I remember that clearly… I’m waiting for a better poll like Strategic vision.

]]> By: James King http://gop3.com/2006/07/12/badger-poll-timed-trash/comment-page-1/#comment-8173 James King Thu, 13 Jul 2006 06:40:13 +0000 http://gop3.com/?p=480#comment-8173 I too read the entire poll, with particular interest in the Attorney General race. Where on earth did these numbers come from? If the polling was truly ramdom, there should have been a very different distribution. Paul Bucher has no campaign activity west or north of Madison, and Van Hollen has a huge volunteer network that Bucher could only dream of buying, yet somehow Bucher ends up decisively on top. Additionally, I would estimate that nearly 40% of Democrats with whom I've spoken have a VERY unfavorable opinion of Lautenschlager. How she is in a dead heat with JB is unexplainable. The methodology paragraph (which in and of itself is horrifically insufficient for a scientific study) fails to discuss where the "508 randomly sampled" indivuals were from. Based on the obviously skewed distribution, I would opine that they were randomly sampled in key areas only, such as Waukesha and Milwaukie, thus nullifying the randomness of the sample. There was no detail given to clarify whether the samples were statewide or localized. My undergrad (one of them) is in Economics, with an emphasis on Statistics. This poll fails even the most basic of scientific methods. It is quite clear that this poll was designed to solicit a particular, programmed result. If anybody else out there, like me, understands advanced math and statistics, you're probably sick to your stomach in reading through this poll. I'd really like to see the original regressions and verify the statistical significances of the deductions, because they all seem to be outliers to me, well outside an acceptable number of standard deviations. I too read the entire poll, with particular interest in the Attorney General race. Where on earth did these numbers come from? If the polling was truly ramdom, there should have been a very different distribution. Paul Bucher has no campaign activity west or north of Madison, and Van Hollen has a huge volunteer network that Bucher could only dream of buying, yet somehow Bucher ends up decisively on top. Additionally, I would estimate that nearly 40% of Democrats with whom I’ve spoken have a VERY unfavorable opinion of Lautenschlager. How she is in a dead heat with JB is unexplainable.

The methodology paragraph (which in and of itself is horrifically insufficient for a scientific study) fails to discuss where the “508 randomly sampled” indivuals were from. Based on the obviously skewed distribution, I would opine that they were randomly sampled in key areas only, such as Waukesha and Milwaukie, thus nullifying the randomness of the sample. There was no detail given to clarify whether the samples were statewide or localized.

My undergrad (one of them) is in Economics, with an emphasis on Statistics. This poll fails even the most basic of scientific methods. It is quite clear that this poll was designed to solicit a particular, programmed result. If anybody else out there, like me, understands advanced math and statistics, you’re probably sick to your stomach in reading through this poll.

I’d really like to see the original regressions and verify the statistical significances of the deductions, because they all seem to be outliers to me, well outside an acceptable number of standard deviations.

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