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“The lack of regular polling by independent media organizations in the state compounds the problem. No Milwaukee or Green Bay or Madison news organization currently sponsors regular, professional and high quality readings of public opinion … Not, perhaps, the best state of affairs for journalism in Wisconsin.” 
Charles Franklin, Political Science Professor at UW-Madison

“You’ll see many of those done for national media outlets, but few in Wisconsin. In those cases the numbers are mostly reliable. … A friend in the business says: ‘National media polls are usually pretty good because the sponsors have the resources to pay to do them right. …. Unlike some other states, Wisconsin does not have a history of a reliable statewide media poll…’” Bill Christofferson, well-known Democratic Consultant

Well, folks, the Democratic consultant, this Republican blogger, and the objective academic analyst are all in agreement. Wisconsin deserves better polling!

So, today I propose for your consideration The Reliable Poll. It starts with all the media outlets in Wisconsin recognizing their duty to provide accurate reporting. There are 34 daily newspapers in this state and an equal number of television stations. There are probably a dozen news-talk radio stations statewide, and Wispolitics.com. Let’s say total there are 80 daily news outlets in Wisconsin that each are willing to put $2000 in a polling fund. $2000 a piece, that’s all I’m asking for – a pittance for good polling. Of course, we’ll invite the heavies who already sponsor polls (WI Public Radio, Journal Sentinel, Capital Times) to pony up what they are already spending.

With a budget of $350,000 a cycle, I’d go to Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster, and Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates, a Democratic pollster, both with offices in Madison, and ask them to adminster the poll together, bipartisanly, ala Teeter-Hart. This should ensure that people on both sides of the aisle and journalists can trust the poll.

During the off-election year, I’d poll four times at about $25k a pop – 1000 Wisconsin adults, which should also give a sample of about 800 registered voters, 600 likely voters, and 300 registered voters for each party primary. With computers these days you should be able to cross-tab down to those small groups and still get a statistically valid sample. Ask all the basics: approval rating for the President, Governor, WI AG, both U.S. Senators, Congress, U.S. right/wrong track, Wisconsin right/wrong track, a few key issues like immigration or stem cells, and maybe a few statewide election battles. With demographics, twenty questions.

Then, during the on-election year, I’d poll eight times – mid-January, mid-March, mid-May, mid-June, mid-July, mid-August, mid-September, mid-October, and November 1. Ask all the above questions plus and primary and general election head-to-heads for statewide offices.

I’d also make the mid-June and mid-September polls “super-polls” with double the sample size and a few extra questions. A an overall of 2000 adults gives you a sample of 500 adults/400 registered voters in each of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts, so on these two polls I’d add on a district-specific question about the incumbent’s job approval and congressional primary and general head-to-heads.

Every poll gets released in full – results broken down by adults, registererd voters, and likely voters. Cross-tabs by congressional district and all the usual sex, age, party, etc. Data galore. The media and the campaigns and the analysts and bloggers can all go hog-wild slicing and dicing it to death; at least they will be slicing and dicing something reliable and valid.

That’s it – that’s the plan. Twelve high-quality polls every cycle, with questions written and ordered in a bipartisan fashion and administered by highly competent professional interviewers, and everything disclosed. Finally, a reliable measure of the People’s Voice.

A closing personal note. I know that among you, dear readers, are a handful of elected officials, professional staff, and political consultants. No doubt internal polls cross your desk from time to time. If you are willing, I’d very much appreciate if you would privately and confidentialy pass along any such polling, for my own personal education and edification. As I have noted, polls verify one another’s quality, and so for instance I might not stress really good numbers from Rasmussen if I’ve seen a pair of private polls showing they’re way off. Equally, I might go charging after the methodology or sponsor of a poll if I’ve seen a pair of private polls showing it off by ten. I’d never disclose without permission, merely use it to help direct my analysis.

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