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In a post yesterday, I mentioned that Democratic 8th Congressional Candidate Steve Kagen had hired as his direct mail firm the same group that did many of the negative attack pieces for Kerry ‘04.

In a comment on that post, a comment-leaver named Bueller asked, “So who do you think will be the first campaign to go negative??? My money is on John Gard. Any takers???”

Actually, I can virtually guarentee I will win with a simple review of the facts.

The Hill, a Washington DC newspaper, has reported that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has reserved television time in WI-8 starting the week before the primary. The ads before the primary have to be negative attack ads against Gard, because there’s no Democrat to be positive about. Plus, we know that the DCCC has a record of making lots of negative spots.

At the same time, Gard can’t go negative until AFTER the primary, because he won’t know which of the three Democrats to attack.

In other words, I’ll take that bet, because all a simple look at the timeline shows the DCCC will go on the attack before Gard will. The only question is - will the three Democrats in the primary fight go negative on Gard or one another over the course of the next month???

P.S. There’s been a lot of talk about how the Lamont-Lieberman fight is a battle for the soul of the Democratic Party, and whether moderates have a place in Dean’s Dems, driven by the “netroots.” No one talks about the Chafee-Laffey race for the Republican nomination in Rhode Island any more…

• Steve Kagen's "Sleaze" Peddler - July 21st, 2008
• J. T. Dugan for ED-WI - July 16th, 2008
• Unfortunateness in the 8th - July 10th, 2008
• Good signs from new GB Bishop - July 9th, 2008
• DC Tourism Tips 1 and 2 - July 6th, 2008