My Ballot Today, My Predictions for Tonight

The race I care most about is the 23rd State Assembly district, because it is my home district. John Wirth is going to win this one. He is out there campaigning hard. He is the tried and true conservative in the race and a long-time, experienced community leader. John Wirth will make a great state rep.

On the AG’s race, I’m voting for J.B. Van Hollen. While the two are basically the same on policy positions, I think everyone agrees J.B. is marginally more conservative on individual privacy rights (drunk driving) and concealed carry. More importantly, I think JB has the temperment and experience to serve as the state’s law enforcement leader. His service as U.S. Attorney has prepared him well for dealing with a range of cases (criminal, civil) and co-workers (sheriffs, DAs, FBI, etc). As to temperment – Paul Bucher’s pitch is that he is a “pit bull.” That’s what I want in a courtroom prosecutor. That is not the kind of person who will work most effectively as our state’s law enforcement leader I think. J.B. is the man for the job.

As to the predictions,

I’m going to say Falk beats Lautenschlager. The electability argument works for Democratic primary voters. Why? Think back to 2004. No doubt Howard Dean was the front-runner, he had the money, the enthusiasm, the support of the hard left, and Al Gore’s endorsement (Well…). But when voters went to the polls or caucuses, they chose the more statesmanlike, less ideologically pure Senator John Kerry. Because John Kerry, they thought, could beat George Bush, whereas they believed Howard Dean couldn’t beat Bush.

I think the same will be true here. Actually, I’m guessing that Falk is a bit more liberal than Lautenschlager if it really came down to it. While undoubtably some Democrats will see this as Falk stabbing Peg in the back, I think most will adopt a more pragmatic view and vote Falk.

JB over Bucher, barely. The Republican AG’s race is much less easy to predict. I meet a lot of people down here who like Paul Bucher. Think he’s really tough on crime, think he’s tough on immigration. I had one person tell me he’d never vote for Bucher after he failed to convict a football player in a hot-tub with a teenager. On the whole, I’m taking J.B. Bucher’s oops on the pro-life questionairre is going to cost him primary votes, no doubt. J.B. will carry heavy out-state and he’ll turn in good performances in places like Washington, Ozaukee, and Walworth in the SE WI “base” of Bucher. J.B.’s been out campaigning really hard and that will help as well. It’s going to be close and I wouldn’t bet on it, but my best guess is for J.B.

As for the 8th Congressional, Gard in a landslide, obviously. I’d say Gard with 70 percent, McCormick with 30 tops. She has no base outside her state Assembly district and a few anti-establishmentarians.

I’m going to go Kagen 50, Nusbaum 25, Wall 25. The surprise that I’m calling is how well Wall does and how poorly Nusbaum does. I think Wall will get a lot of the hardcore, activist vote, particularly given his hard-hitting TV ads. I think Nusbaum’s base has evaporated as the campaign has gone on – the voters who are choosing on electability are going Kagen, the voters chosing on ideology are going Wall, and Nusbaum is left doing poorer than expected. I think Kagen will get his voters he’s had all along. The NRCC ads are not going to hurt him among Dem primary voters. He’ll win this round and lose the next.

I’m also calling Ross over LaFollette, big for Ross. Democratic primary voters are going to be liberals voting in the AG’s race. Whether union liberals or values liberals, all the liberal groups are endorsing Ross. He’s been pounding the ground hard and he’s going to turn heads with his upset victory.

As for the rest, Hundermart over Voegeli, obviously, Reid over Tyberg, Nygren over Drzweicki, Zipperer and Kramer for Waukesha’s Assembly seats. Crossing fingers for Sheriff Clarke. I’ve only followed these races from a distance, and it’s more instinct than analysis on these ones.

We’ll see what we wake up to tomorrow morning…

P.S. Our friends at UW-Green Bay have started a new blog at www.FightingPhoenix.com. We wish them well and urge you to check them out!

As a P.P.S. Timothy George, writing for Christianity Today, brings to our attention this anecdote of C.S. Lewis, appropriate for this week:
C. S. Lewis preached at the University Church of St. Mary the Virgin at Oxford on October 22, 1939. Less than two months earlier, Hitler had invaded Poland. Britain was about to face the horrible Nazi onslaught. This is what Lewis told the assembled students:

It may seem odd for us to carry on classes, to go about our academic routine in the midst of a great war. What is the use of beginning when there is so little chance of finishing? How can we study Latin, geography, algebra in a time like this? Aren’t we just fiddling while Rome burns?

This impending war has taught us some important things. Life is short. The world is fragile. All of us are vulnerable, but we are here because this is our calling. Our lives are rooted not only in time, but also in eternity, and the life of learning, humbly offered to God, is its own reward. It is one of the appointed approaches to the divine reality and the divine beauty, which we shall hereafter enjoy in heaven and which we are called to display even now amidst the brokenness all around us.

That is our calling, too, amidst the brokenness—including the threat of terrorism—all around us. We are to be faithful to God’s calling, to bear witness to the beauty, the light, and the divine reality that we shall forever enjoy in heaven. We are to do this in a culture that seems, at times, like Augustine’s, a crumbling world beset by dangers we cannot predict.

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