Does anyone remember the name Nick Voegeli?
No reason you should. He was the former Sun Prairie alderman and failed state assembly candidate who decided to make a run at the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor in 2006.
He spent $1,287.13 in his primary bid for Lt. Gov, and garnered over 93,000 votes, or 44%. He filed the last possible day before the deadline to get on the ballot, and he did virtually no campaigning before or after the filing date.
By contrast, Jean Hundertmark was a state representative who had campaigned actively for well over a year before the primary, who was endorsed by the Republican Party of Wisconsin’s state convention and our gubernatorial nominee, Mark Green. She showed up at every Republican event with a half dozen attendees in every corner of the state and raised a decent pile of cash for the campaign. Yet she only received 55% of the vote to no name no campaign Voegli’s 44%.
I point this whole story out as a way of saying that I do not believe it totally outside the realm of possibility that Joe Sommers’ beats all expectations and makes it past tomorrow’s Supreme Court primary.
Linda Clifford and Annette Ziegler are the two establishment candidates, Clifford for the Left, Ziegler for the Right. They have both raised and spent lots of money and campaigned actively. They don’t have any complaints at OLR.
But I would not be surprised if Joe Sommers finds that at least 34 percent of voters just check the box for the male candidate.
You remember when you were in second grade and there were two eight-graders running for student council president, a guy and a girl? I bet most of you just voted for whoever was the same gender as you.
If 44% of Wisconsin Republican primary voters chose Voegli, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sommers pulled the upset and beat out one of the female candidates.
Hillary Clinton, pay attention.
Polls open at 7 a.m. tomorrow. Go vote.
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I’ll be voting Ziegler early hopefully.
Interesting hypothesis, and most of the factors that were in play in the Lt. Gov. race last year are still around; no media attention, and no widespread buzz about any of the candidates. However, there is one big difference; I don’t recall any Hundertmark commercials airing last year, while there have been Ziegler commercials in at least the Milwaukee market (can’t speak to any other Wisconsin media market). Dunno if Clifford aired any in the Madison market (don’t remember hearing any here). While those commercials have been few, and limited to radio (at least as far as I can tell), they do serve to strip away the 2nd-grade “default” mentality that shows up when dealing with two unknowns.
I would be VERY careful in trying to apply that theory to the highest-profile race in the country. Each major candidate is going to be so thoroughly dissected that even if it is Giuliani/McCain versus Clinton/Obama (side note: I’d be very tempted to write myself in at that point), there are enough differences that will come out that will completely strip away that “default” mentality.
Clifford is the only one not spending any money on paid media prior to the primary. I agree that Sommers may sneak through, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that Zeigler racks up 50%+.
Having met each of your longshot candidates (Sommers is from my hometown of Oregon, and Voegeli ran for the 46th Assembly District against Gary Hebl in 2004) I can say that Voegeli has a little more going for him. Voegeli was also an assistant state treasurer or something to that effect before making his Lt. Governor bid.
I think the default/unknown phenomen is probably a little weaker in a spring election too. It seems like people voting in a spring election would be a little more well informed.
The problem with your view is that most people who go out in a spring primary do so because they actually know enough and care enough to cast a ballot. Therefore there is 100% no chance that Sommers prevails. With a 10% turnout in the state you are somehow thinking a large part of the voters who will go to the polls in the state are highly uninformed about the ethical problems of Sommers. Sommers even makes the candidate of WI Manf. and Commerce look good. I am rather surprised that you wrote this post since you have written rather thought provoking posts in the the past.
Interesting. It goes to show that no one really cares about the Lt. Governor position I guess.
Maybe I’ll drop a couple grand and run in 2010.