Jun

Rudy’s Rural Problem

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a major nationwide Democratic polling firm, teamed up with Republican firm Greener and Hook to take a poll at the beginning of this month of 804 rural likely voters (Crosstabs for the data freaks; straight questions for the interested, report memo, key findings). Among the many interesting results is this one: Rudy would lose substantial Republican votes.

First GQR asked voters about a standard scenario with a pro-choice liberal Democrat and a pro-life conservative Republican.

Now I am going to read you some things two candidates have said in their campaign for President. After I read these descriptions, please tell me which one you would support.
Candidate A is a Democrat. He believes in fundamentally changing the direction of the country, beginning by bringing our troops home from Iraq. He also says that this economy works well for the rich, but less well for middle class families, and will work to make sure everyone has a chance at the American dream. Although he respects those with different views, he supports a woman’s right to choose and supports civil unions for same sex couples.

Candidate B is a Republican. He says there are some things he would do differently than George Bush. However, he supports victory in Iraq and does not want to hand the terrorists another win after 9/11. He believes the best thing we can do for the economy is to cut taxes, but will also fight for ways to bring America’s prosperity to everyone. He opposes abortion, particularly partial birth abortion, and opposes gay marriage. [Emphasis added]

Support Democrat strongly…………………………………………..31
Support Democrat, not so strongly…………………………………8
Support Republican, not so strongly………………………………8
Support Republican, strongly……………………………………….46

Total Democrat…………………………………………………………39
Total Republican………………………………………………………54
Democrat – Republican……………………………………………..-15

Great news, obviously. The Republican leads by 15 points! Then they rewrote the Republican candidate’s qualities a little:

Now I am going to read you some things two candidates have said in their campaign for President. After I read these descriptions, please tell me which one you would support.
Candidate A is a Democrat. He believes in fundamentally changing the direction of the country, beginning by bringing our troops home from Iraq. He also says that this economy works well for the rich, but less well for middle class families, and will work to make sure everyone has a chance at the American dream. Although he respects those with different views, he supports a woman’s right to choose and supports civil unions for same sex couples.

Candidate B is a Republican. He says there are some things he would do differently than George Bush. However, he supports victory in Iraq and does not want to hand the terrorists another win after 9/11. He believes the best thing we can do for the economy is to cut taxes, but will also fight for ways to bring America’s prosperity to everyone. Unlike other politicians, he does not runaway from his views. He has a history of supporting a women’s right to choose and will not change his beliefs because he is running for President.

Support Democrat strongly…………………………………………..31
Support Democrat, not so strongly………………………………..13
Support Republican, not so strongly……………………………..10
Support Republican, strongly……………………………………….38

Total Democrat…………………………………………………………44
Total Republican………………………………………………………47
Democrat – Republican………………………………………………-3

All of a sudden the Republican loses 12 of his 15 point lead! NOT GOOD! This result is confirmed less directly by other questions in the survey too.

For every vote Rudy would gain among suburban and urban moderates, might he lose a vote among rural and religious conservatives?

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