McCain 2008 in Wisconsin

The Racine Journal Times carries a rather harsh AP story:

Even as Democrat Barack Obama fought for his party’s nomination for president, his campaign was hiring staff, opening offices and registering voters for the general election in Wisconsin.

Months after Republican John McCain became his party’s presumptive nominee, he had no paid staff or offices open until Monday in Wisconsin. … [W]ithout any visible signs of a campaign for months, Wisconsin Republicans privately wondered about McCain’s strategy. McCain aides say their strategy is on track and the campaign will have workers across the state in a matter of weeks.

I’ll say four things on this story (you can find a much longer version at Fox 11). First, Obama had to organize Wisconsin for the Democratic primary, which gives him a huge leg-up in grassroots organization. For the primary in February, he secured endorsements, set up a county-by-county organization of activists, and made tons of phone calls identifying voters, volunteers, yard sign locations, etc. John McCain didn’t have to worry about the Wisconsin primary, so he set up none of this. Now he has to play catch-up.

By this time in 2004, the Bush team in Wisconsin had accomplished an awful lot. Mark Graul, Mike Duffey, and team were in the Wauwatosa office in January of 2004 if I recall correctly. The Students for Bush operation at Marquette and statewide was organized and running in the spring semester, identifying volunteers and voters. Dozens of phone calls were made every hour at the ‘Tosa office. There’s none of that this time.

Third: One consequence of Obama starting in January and McCain starting in June is a huge differential in the “burn rate” of campaign funds. Yeah, Obama had an office in Wisconsin with staff. But that costs a lot of money to keep open and full. The McCain campaign has been stockpiling dollars in their war chest for TV ads and staff in the coming months, whereas Obama’s burn rate in April was 114% – he was spending more money than he was taking in! Smart people at McCain HQ weighed up the cost to the benefit of opening offices in swing states, and decided to stockpile the cash; we’ll have to trust that was the right decision.

Fourth and finally, I’d say just to back off and give Mike Duffey and Juston Johnson some room. They’re appointments were announced at the end of May, and Mike Duffey’s first day on the job was June 10 – i.e. yesterday (he was working at the Pentagon in Washington until then). So lay off and let them do their jobs. The first real test will be how many parade teams take to the streets of Wisconsin’s town and villages on July 4 weekend, Packer-Badger schedules in hand. If we get reports from people across the state that there was no GOP presence in their parade, then we can start to worry. Until then, I’m supporting the team.

UPDATE: A release from RPW reveals that Obama does not have a campaign office open anywhere in Wisconsin. They’ve been closed since February. He still, however, has a huge network of volunteers and county leaders that McCain is going to have to build from scratch.

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