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The Washington Post has a project on their website where you can make you’re presidential picks by electoral vote. It’s a real fun thing to kill 30 minutes. The Post also gives you a foundation for the election based off swing states, 2004, or the McCain/Obama primary races. Right now, based off the people who are making predictions, they have the election going Obama 306 to McCain’s 232. The Post also allows you to see how predictions are trending with Swing States and the states that are leaning towards each candidate. The Post also allows you to read about presidential election news and find out basic electoral information broken down by each state.
Here are my electoral vote predictions:
I used Real Clear Politics to make my prediction. I think some of the states are starting to trend McCain based off of polls from the last month so I feel like they’ll continue to go in that direction. My picks have McCain picking up Michigan and New Hampshire. McCain wins the south and post of the west (as expected). Obama Picks up Colorado. He wins the most of the northeast, midwest and the pacific states (also as expected).
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My opinion is that you’re a little more optimistic on Michigan and Ohio than I am… I don’t think Michigan will fall for McCain and Ohio is probably right on the fence again. Wisconsin and Colorado on the other hand may go McCain because of what happened at the conventions, the appeal of McCain/Palin to the type of people who live there, and the recent crack downs on voter fraud (not to suggest fraudulent voting is pro-democrat). I think Iowa and Montana will go Obama because of the trends in those states. Also… some of the southern states may flip back the other way to support Obama like Virginia and Tennessee (looking at trends again). 291 to 247 is optimistic… I hope you’re right but a lot is falling on Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Montana, and Wisconsin– of course how McCain looks in the debates.
Also… a lot of the polling suggests that the only area Obama is winning massive support of is 30 and under– the largest generation in America representing 40 million people according to the US Census bureau
Also refer to the US Census Bereau Map
A lot is riding on where the population has moved to.
Michigan won’t go McCain, nor will New Mexico. Ohio could go either way, as could New Hampshire and Virginia, but I strongly suspect that Virginia and probably Ohio will go blue.
But come November 5, we’ll know who was right.
Colorado is far more likely to go red than NM. I would go so far as to say that everything is going to come down to Colorado this time, and hopefully it is similar enough to Alaska that Palin will have wide-spread appeal there.
Michigan will be close, it will probably be the “Wisconsin” of 2008, but to put it in the red camp is rather over optimstic.
NH is a bit of a wild-card as it is probably the one (Bush 2000 Red State)where McCain is more popular than Palin. If McCain were smart he’d spend almost all his time in NH with occasional trips to VA, send Palin to Colorado.
Also just playing with the numbers, I think this is something of a chance for a “tie” in the electoral votes this year…
Keeping everything from 2004 the same, with Obama picking up Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa results in a 269-269 tie.
It’s a very plausible scenario.
If it goes to the House, the thing to remember is that in the tiebreaker, Congressional delegations vote as a state, not individually. Assuming all House incumbents win, Republicans hold a majority in 23 of the 50 delegations (a total that includes Kansas and Arizona, where they are tied, but both states are expected to go for McCain, so you have to figure that’s where the votes would go).
However, the vote for President would take place after the 111th Congress is sworn in, and Republicans trail by only one Congressman in several states (West Virginia and North Carolina to name two), so things could change.
My map looks similar overall to yours, but with Obama winning more of the upper Midwest and NH — totalling well over 300 electoral votes. My estimate is based on recent polls and newspaper feedback in some major cities in those states. Thanks for the link to the “make your own map” site — I did it and it was fun! Keep an eye out for “Tom Walker’s” map! Best wishes, TW