BCS Armageddon

(h/t: The General for doing research on this)

This season of College Football has really strengthened the debate of playoff system versus the computer system for setting up the BCS system. Admittedly I am a fan of the BCS and really don’t want to see a playoff system. Neither does the NCAA, implementing a playoff system would be giving up a whole lot of money. Plus I think coaches have agendas and put teams that are undeserving. If anything I would advocate a hybrid system. 8 team playoff, maybe 10 with two play-ins and 10 other bowls for teams that didn’t qualify.

This year looks real entertaining, with the BCS going to hell. I’m already complaining that we’ll be seeing the #1 team in Alabama playing the #2 team in a non-bowl game. If some of the Championship games blow up, the BCS system could look really foolish. Granted Cincinnati playing in the Orange Bowl is foolish enough.

Here’s what we have so far:

Penn State (Big 10), Cincinnati (Big East) have automatic BCS berths
Utah (Mountain West) guaranteed at-large spot
ACC title game winner (Boston College/Virginia Tech) gets automatic BCS berth
USC wins Pac-10 with win over UCLA on Saturday; if USC loses, Oregon State gains Pac-10 BCS berth

The Championship Games best case scenario:

Oklahoma beats Missouri (Big 12 title game)
Alabama beats Florida (SEC title game)
Ball State beats Buffalo (MAC title game)

This would make the BSC games look like this, with

Alabama vs. Oklahoma (BCS National Championship)
Cincinnati vs. Boston College/Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)
Penn State vs. USC/Oregon State (Rose Bowl)
Utah/At-Large 1, 2, or 3 vs. At-Large 1, 2, or 3 (Sugar Bowl)
Utah/ At-Large 1, 2, or 3 vs. At-Large 1, 2, or 3 (Fiesta Bowl)

Probable At-Large Teams: Ohio State (Fiesta Bowl), Florida (Sugar Bowl), Texas (Fiesta Bowl) However there are a number of other teams in the at large pool including: Boise State (12-0, WAC champions), Ball State (13-0, MAC champions), TCU (10-2, WAC runner-up), Texas Tech (11-1, Big 12 South Co-Champions), Georgia Tech (9-3, ACC Coastal Co-Champions). Some of the above listed teams deserve BCS births as well, and it’s obvious that some of those teams are going to be cut out. But that is still the best case scenario. As long as Texas makes a BCS game I would be happy.

Worst-Case Scenario:

Florida beats Alabama in SEC title game
Ball State wins MAC title game, finishes 13-0
Missouri beats Oklahoma (Big 12 title game)
USC beats UCLA to win Pac-10

Texas finishes #2 in final BCS standings. Yes that’s right a team that didn’t play in its conference championship game would be playing in the National Championship. I would love to see this play out but I think it’s more likely that Florida would vault to #1 and USC to #2, given that they both won their conferences. But no one wants to see USC play Florida; Tim Tebow is the most undeserving Heisman Trophy Winner and no one wants to see the same team play ever year.

If Texas finishes #2 this is how things will look:

Florida vs. Texas (BCS National Championship)
Cincinnati vs. Boston College/Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)
Penn State vs. USC (Rose Bowl)
Alabama vs. Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl)
Utah vs. Missouri (Fiesta Bowl)

However there are still some teams that would deserve to be considered for a BCS Bowl: Boise State (12-0, WAC champions), Ohio State (10-2, Big 10 runner-up), Ball State (13-0, MAC champions), TCU (10-2, WAC runner-up), Texas Tech (11-1, Big 12 South Co-Champions), Georgia Tech (9-3, ACC Coastal Co-Champions)

This year probably strengthens the likelihood of a playoff consideration. I would be much happier watching the worst case scenario burn the BCS down with Texas Playing in the National Championship. However I’d still like to see Alabama play Texas. I would watch that.

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