The Death of Northeast Republicans Greatly Exaggerated

With the resignation of Justice David Souter and the party switch of Senator Arlen Specter, there has been great wailing and gnashing of teeth on the op-ed pages about the end of “Yankee Republicans.” Yet as a colleague points out, the 2010 polling data do not support the conclusion:

Pennsylvania Senate: Specter (D)(I), 41 – Ridge (R), 48
New Jersey Governor: Corzine (D)(I), 36 – Christie (R), 47
New York Governor: Paterson (D)(I), 32 – Guiliani (R), 53
Connecticut Senate: Dodd (D)(I), 42 – Simmons (R), 43
Delaware Senate: Biden (D), 34 – Castle (R), 55
New Hampshire Senate: Hodes (D), 41 – Sununu (R), 46
Connecticut Governor: Bysiewicz (D), 32 – Rell (R)(I), 53

Although there’s no head-to-head for 2010 yet, we can also look at Massachusetts Governor through the question: “Who did a better job as Governor—Deval Patrick or Mitt Romney?” Patrick (D)(I), 32 – Romney (R), 49. There’s also no head-to-head data for Vermont yet, but incumbent Republican Jim Douglas is currently favored by analysts.

So in other words, if the November 2010 election were held today, Republicans would hold the Senate seat in New Hampshire, and pick up seats in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Delaware. We’d hold the governorships of Vermont and Connecticut, and pick up New York, New Jersey, and maybe Massachusetts.

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